President Lai's Emphasis on Real Strength Could Signal Path to Militarism
The Storm Media Editorial, October 3, 2024
President Lai Ching-te made a bold statement that Taiwan must “achieve peace through strength” and should never sign a peace agreement with Communist China. But how high is military spending to be considered as having “strength?” Taiwan’s defense budget for next year is estimated to be 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Also advocating for “strength,” Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently strongly asserted that Taiwan’s military budget should be increased to 10 percent of GDP. No wonder some scholars criticize that Mr. Trump is pushing Taiwan towards “militarism.”
Former President Tsai Ing-wen extended mandatory military service to one year, prioritized the development of asymmetric weapons, developed indigenous defense submarines, and advanced reforms in reserve forces. Under President Tsai, the defense budget had been increased for seven consecutive years, and the budget proposal by the Lai administration is even higher, with defense spending increasing by 7.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The overall defense budget is NT$ 647 billion (about US$20.25 billion), accounting for approximately 2.45 percent of GDP, which already exceeds the 2 percent standard set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states.
What President Lai refers to as "strength" primarily revolves around "military personnel." To consolidate young voters, President Lai claimed before the election that his approach was the one with "the lowest risk of war across the Taiwan Straits" and guaranteed that "conscripts will not be sent to the battlefield." To alleviate the reluctance of conscripts to serve", the DPP administration raised the salary level of mandatory service to be close to that of volunteer service. However, this has led to a mass exodus of volunteer soldiers, with the number of volunteers deemed “unfit for service” increasing year by year. The number of volunteer soldiers leaving in a year is equivalent to an entire brigade. The number of volunteer officers and soldiers has dropped to 155,000, and this year, it is estimated that over 9,100 conscripts will be recruited into service. With the ebb and flow, the manpower of the military’s main combat units is significantly declining, raising concerns that conscripts will be sent to fill the gaps in combat forces.
The Lai campaign’s promise that "conscripts will not be sent to the battlefield" has already fallen short. According to the latest report from the Legislative Yuan Budget Center, the number of volunteer military personnel in the armed forces has reached a record low in recent years by the end of June 2024, with most first-line combat units, including the offshore Island Infantry forces, having a current organizational strength ratio below 80 percent. It is evident that the reluctance of young people to enlist has not been dispelled. The Legislative Yuan’s Budget Center has warned that the military needs to carefully consider how to address the issue of insufficient volunteer soldiers.
The defense policy of the Lai administration has encountered a "mass exodus of volunteer soldiers,” leading to plans for the conscription of 400,000 militias. The National Security Council is assessing sources for these 400,000 militiamen, which will include not only public sector personnel but also civilian disaster relief organizations, alternative services personnel, volunteer firefighters and police, and other NGOs. They will be trained to achieve "moderate-level duty capacity" to "support military operations when necessary." However, this is unlikely to fill the massive gap in manpower shortages.
Then regarding "military armaments," some military experts point out that Taiwan's purchase of M1A2 main battle tank from the United States will be delivered to Taiwan by the end of this year. The delivery of this military procurement has been delayed for 20 years, and it is neither possible to refuse it nor return it. The nature of land warfare has undergone revolutionary changes, and the dominance of main battle tanks has faded. This acquisition will not significantly enhance our military power. Nowadays, in terms of Taiwan's defense operations, including anti-landing operations and urban warfare (street fighting) on land, the massive giant tanks no longer dominate the battlefield. The once-glorious dominance of the M1A2 main battle tank has been shaken, and it may even become a dead weight.
Over the past two years, the Russia-Ukraine war has continuously seen images of drones attacking tanks and armored vehicles. Under the drone's Skynet, even the strongest tanks have little chance to escape, with extremely low survival rates. Facing Communist China, a major drone power, anti-armor weapons such as TOW missiles, javelin missiles, and the Kestrel anti-armor rockets and other equipment are more advantageous defense weapons for Taiwan's anti-landing and urban warfare than main battle tanks. After all, survival on the battlefield comes first before discussing how to utilize combat power.
Looking at the Middle East wars, in mid-September during the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously across Lebanon. Hezbollah’s method of attacking by detonating communication devices triggered Israel's decision to take a deadly strike against the Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, resembling the plot of a spy fiction. All these incidents illustrate that the nature of modern warfare has drastically changed.
In contrast, President Lai’s so-called "strength" is essentially “pro-Americanism,” merely aiming to turn Taiwan into an "arsenal" and "Hedgehog Island." The American academic community has advocated for Taiwan to increase its defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, but Mr. Trump went even further, arguing that Taiwan's defense spending is insufficient and calling for it to be raised to 10 percent of GDP. Is Taiwan’s path to increase its "strength" simply to serve the interests of the America’s arms industry? Or is it pushing Taiwan toward "militarism"?
President Lai’s concept of "strength" may also include the Black Bear Academy, which aims to cultivate an unparalleled "cognitive warfare" team, the one that forms a protective shield of invincibility and invulnerability to any weapon. Domestically, this approach fuels ideological agendas and glosses over policies, merely rehearsing a "Zero-Day Attack" in advance, while shouting empty slogans like "strength for peace." Externally, it’s all bluster and posturing, ineptly yet aptly embodying the saying "a puffed-up frog has no meat”—just like that small frog trying to appear more than it is.
The Lai administration acting in desperation at the last-minute just like digging a well only when thirsty, does not consider expanding the main combat forces of the military. Instead, it focuses on directly utilizing and controlling social forces such as temple militias, auxiliary police, vigilante, civil defense units, and reservist forces to support military duties. This is a misguided, disorganized approach, running in circles with misplaced priorities. At the same time, the administration brazenly provokes the other side across the strait while failing to address how to retain volunteer soldiers for longer periods and to put them to good use. Allowing experienced battlefield veterans to leave in large numbers, as losing an entire brigade’s worth of soldiers each year, is a self-inflicted weakening of military capabilities.
As a leader, instead of contemplating the path to long-term peace and stability for the nation, focuses solely on petty tricks like wielding the sword of the commoners. How can this be a blessing for the country?